Science & Tech
WMO forecasts very strong El Niño through February 2027
Governments must turn seasonal forecasts into heat and health protection.
Governments must turn seasonal forecasts into heat and health protection.
A strengthening is turning a Pacific warning into a global test of readiness. The says it could be one of the strongest events since 1950. Ocean temperatures may peak around December 2026, and the pattern is almost certain to continue through February 2027. affects regions in different ways, increasing the risk of extreme heat, drought, floods, and disruptions to water, food, and basic services.
UN officials say forecasts should lead to action, not just alerts. Governments are urged to prepare hospitals, protect outdoor workers, open , change working hours, and make cities safer. Only about half of countries issue heat warnings that address health and work risks. Better planning could reduce illness and financial losses, but local effects remain uncertain, so each area needs its own plan.
February 2027 is the WMO horizon for the near-certain . By then, updated observations can assess the event’s duration and intensity, while governments and institutions can review how heat, rainfall, water, food and infrastructure plans performed amid uncertain .
December 2026 is the forecast window for maximum intensity, with the anomaly expected to average about 3.7°C. Observations at this point will test whether ocean and atmospheric conditions matched the very strong projection.
, , the and Duke University introduced a toolkit for . It is designed to help ministries, mayors and meteorological services connect warnings with , adjusted work hours, hospital readiness and longer-term investment.
WMO reported that only about half of countries, in its latest full assessment, provided . The gap showed why must be translated into responsibilities for hospitals, employers, schools, utilities and local governments.
Officials highlighted legislative protection for workers in factories, fields and construction sites, along with adjusted working hours and . Cities were also urged to use to make streets and homes safer during extreme heat.
The heat response agenda included surveillance, public messaging, hospital readiness and outreach to older people and those with existing conditions. WMO said warnings should be co-produced by meteorological and health authorities so forecasts lead to defined clinical and public-health actions.
WMO officials called for forecasts to give health services time to prepare, employers time to adjust working hours and communities time to reach people at greatest risk. Recommended systems connect warnings to health plans, cooling access, urban design and .
At the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for backed by and resources. Officials framed extreme heat as a recurring governance and development risk rather than only a short-term emergency.
Forecast changes in rainfall raised the prospect of drought, flooding and disrupted water availability in different regions. Authorities and farmers therefore face decisions involving reservoirs, irrigation, planting, crop conditions, food supplies and potentially prices.
WMO linked the strengthening event to across broad areas, adding pressure to , electricity systems and . The forecast increased the need for that communicate likely impacts, not only temperature readings.
The forecast did not imply identical conditions worldwide. El Niño can raise temperatures and alter rainfall in different ways by region, producing drought in some areas while increasing elsewhere, so national and local outlooks remain necessary.
WMO projected the at about 3.7°C above average for . The forecast placed the around December, shifting attention from detection to preparation before maximum intensity.
WMO placed the likelihood of El Niño continuing through at nearly 100 percent. The agency said the event could rank among the , extending planning needs across health, water, agriculture and .
WMO reported that was firmly established in the and strengthening rapidly. Ocean temperatures and had moved beyond a short-lived temperature anomaly, triggering updated global .
WMO described new efforts to place meteorological and health experts together, including Africa’s first in Niger. Such coordination is intended to turn shared climate data into warnings for heat and other health threats.