2026–27 El Niño Strengthens and Raises Global Weather Risks

12 Oct 2026

El Niño is strengthening in the tropical Pacific and is expected to persist through February 2027, potentially reaching one of the strongest levels recorded since 1950. This natural climate pattern shifts global rainfall and temperature patterns, raising the likelihood of heatwaves, drought, floods, and marine heat, while producing sharply different effects across regions. Forecasts point to heightened risks for water supplies, food security, public health, infrastructure, and essential services, with climate change potentially amplifying extreme heat. Governments and communities face a need to prepare for compound hazards, including drought in parts of Asia and Australia and heavier rainfall across sections of the Americas. The main uncertainty concerns the event’s peak intensity and the timing and severity of local impacts.