India
Rubio says India-US trade deal is very close to completion
Unresolved farm access still threatens promised tariff stability for Indian exporters.
Unresolved farm access still threatens promised tariff stability for Indian exporters.
The India-US trade deal may be close, but major disputes remain. A cut the US tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and called for India to lower tariffs on US products. India wants the to give its exporters an edge over rivals and keep tariffs steady over time. US access to remains highly sensitive, so the talks could still fail.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on October 19 that the countries were close to a final deal. He spoke before meeting External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in Mumbai on October 20. The talks also involve . Washington’s pause on eases pressure for now, but energy costs and wider relations remain unclear. Drafting, signing and putting the deal into effect are separate steps, so it is not yet a .
Rubio was scheduled to hold talks with S Jaishankar in Mumbai during his India visit. The remaining checklist included the final legal text, for Indian exporters, , and US access to dairy and other agricultural markets. The talks also carried the unresolved energy question, because India’s Russian-oil purchases affect costs, sanctions exposure, and bilateral relations.
Rubio said Washington was very close to finalising the agreement ahead of his India visit. He also said the trade negotiations were taken into account when the United States waived or paused , while citing global energy supplies, prices, and . The statement signalled progress but did not establish that the pact had been signed or become operational.
President Donald Trump signed an order pausing tariffs and other measures associated with legislation targeting countries that continued buying . The measures could otherwise have exposed India to . The pause reduced immediate pressure on India but did not resolve the underlying dispute over its reliance on Russian energy.
India and the United States were close to sealing the first part of a trade agreement, with reported as the biggest remaining obstacle. The was described as finalized and undergoing legal drafting, but implementation details remained unresolved.
New Delhi said the first phase had been finalised, while reporting indicated that the text still had to move through legal drafting and formal procedures. The announcement did not mean the agreement had been signed or implemented. India’s demand for and tariff stability remained part of the final package.
Greer said the agreement was not close enough to be considered imminent, tempering expectations after months of negotiations. His assessment contrasted with India’s later description of the first tranche as effectively settled or entering legal drafting. The differing public signals showed that unresolved substance remained despite the February framework.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman described the talks as having reached a , with limited room for additional concessions. The assessment highlighted the gap between the February framework and a completed agreement. It also preceded later claims that negotiators had moved into a final-stage effort.
Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said India would proceed only if the initial agreement delivered competitive benefits rather than simply reproducing terms available to other exporters. New Delhi also sought greater certainty that tariff treatment would remain stable. That position narrowed the room for concessions and made the first tranche’s practical value central to the talks.
The framework moved the negotiations beyond a single headline tariff rate toward the conditions governing the . Indian officials focused on whether exporters would receive durable tariff treatment and meaningful access relative to competing suppliers. The framework remained a negotiating foundation, not evidence that , signing, or implementation had been completed.
Washington and New Delhi established a framework for an , rather than a signed and operational final pact. The framework lowered the US on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and anticipated Indian tariff reductions on US industrial, food, and agricultural products. The United States also linked to India’s commitment to stop purchasing Russian oil.